There’s a strong link between the past and the future.
That’s the theory behind my annual predictions of baseball’s divisional races. I compare each club’s record during the previous three seasons (2022-2024) to the corresponding marks for 1,318 teams that played during the era of free agency (which began in 1976), and I use my findings to forecast the upcoming standings.
Parallels from the past offer hints about the future. That’s my thinking, anyway.
Today’s focus is on the American League Central. Each team’s score is based on the subsequent performances of its 50 closest matches (CMs) from the past, the clubs it most clearly resembles.
The Detroit Tigers of 2022-2024, for example, looked remarkably like the Colorado Rockies of 2015-2017. My system examines what the Rockies did in 2018 — and what the other 49 CMs did in their following seasons — to determine the forecast for the Tigers.
One point is awarded for each CM that exceeded .500, two more points for making the playoffs, another three points for winning a league pennant, and four extra points for taking a world championship.
The Minnesota Twins earn 94 points in this process, putting them atop the AL Central. Here’s my predicted order of finish in the divisional race:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Cleveland Guardians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Chicago White Sox
Look below for rundowns for all five teams. Each summary starts with the club’s 2025 prediction points, then its 2024 record, and then the next-season results for its 50 CMs. The final line discloses the very closest match of all. (The next-year record for the closest CM may be at odds with my overall prediction, which is okay. The cumulative score for all 50 CMs is what really counts.)
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2025 prediction points: 94
2024 record: 82-80
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 21 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 32 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 1989 Expos (81-81)
2025 prediction points: 83
2024 record: 86-76
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 16 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 31 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2018 Rockies (91-72)
2025 prediction points: 68
2024 record: 92-69
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 14 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 30 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2010 Braves (91-71)
2025 prediction points: 66
2024 record: 86-76
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 3 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 12 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 29 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 1996 Angels (70-91)
2025 prediction points: 14
2024 record: 41-121
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 2 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 10 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 1997 Tigers (79-83)
