NFL Offseason – Yearly, we right here at Soccer Outsiders do our greatest to precisely forecast the upcoming season. We run hundreds of simulations making an allowance for main offseason personnel adjustments, gamers coming back from damage, potential improvement from draft picks, continuity on the offensive line, and quite a few different variables in an try to supply the most effective predictions on the market.
Contemplating how tough predicting the longer term may be, 2021 went fairly effectively. There was a .74 correlation between our imply projected wins and groups’ precise win totals, and a .73 correlation between our projected DVOA and groups’ precise DVOA. For probably the most half, groups have been kind of nearly as good as we anticipated them being.
For the most half, that’s, as a result of there’s at all times an exception or two that falls by means of the cracks, a crew that unexpectedly gels or crumbles. You did not precisely see too many individuals predicting the Cincinnati Bengals would come out of the AFC when all was stated and executed!
Over the subsequent couple weeks, we’ll check out the highest overachieving and underachieving groups of 2021. As we speak, we’re wanting on the 5 groups that outperformed their DVOA projections probably the most, taking a look at simply what we missed and whether or not or not final 12 months’s success was sustainable, or only a mirage.
A fast methodological observe earlier than we start. Our rankings are primarily based on what number of normal deviations every crew beat or fell wanting its projection, moderately than simply wanting on the uncooked numbers. If you run hundreds and hundreds of simulations, it is a very uncommon crew certainly that has an common DVOA over 20.0% or performs higher than 12-5. However every NFL season solely occurs one time, so outlier outcomes not solely occur, however are anticipated—somebody retains rolling sevens all season lengthy, it is simply tough to foretell who. We’re not right here to clarify that the most effective groups have been higher than their projections as a result of that is how simulations work. We need to give attention to the groups that obtained grouped fallacious to start with: the unhealthy groups that grew to become common or the typical groups that grew to become good.
5. Buffalo Payments (+1.22)
Projected DVOA: 10.7%; +0.97 normal deviations
Precise DVOA: 27.6%; +2.19 normal deviations
Our projections had the Payments because the third-best crew within the AFC, however in a tier firmly beneath the Chiefs—contenders, for positive, however not fairly the cream of the crop. As an alternative, they led the league in VOA, solely falling to second in DVOA as a result of they performed the best schedule of the season. The Payments skyrocketed proper previous “contenders” standing and straight into, on the very least, co-favorites within the convention for the foreseeable future.
There was a good bit of consternation once we launched our projections, which had the Payments ranked eleventh in offense a 12 months after rating fifth. The projections had a possible Josh Allen regression baked in to them … and, to be honest, that occurred. Allen’s DVOA fell from 25.9% in 2020 to 4.9% last season; he was nonetheless superb, however Allen’s 2020 could be a profession 12 months for many passers, and our projections took that into consideration. What the projections missed, nonetheless, was the Payments working recreation coming to life midseason. Their 18.4% speeding DVOA from Week 10 on was finest within the league as they discovered an offensive line mixture they appreciated and determined to stay with Devin Singletary as their lead again moderately than rotating him with Zack Moss. That took the strain off of Allen and the passing recreation to do every thing, and Buffalo’s total offensive DVOA jumped from 4.7% in the first half of the year to 14.4% within the second extra consistent with what Payments followers have been hoping earlier than when the season started.
However it was defensive overperformance which actually led the best way right here. The Payments have been projected with a -6.3% defensive DVOA, fifth-best within the league. As an alternative, they hit -18.1%, the second-best mark in franchise historical past. They managed this regardless of Tre’Davious White’s season ending early resulting from an ACL tear. Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, and Taron Johnson all stepped as much as the problem, whereas Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer remained the most effective security tandems within the league. Up entrance, rookies Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham developed sooner than anticipated, and Ed Oliver had a profession 12 months because the Payments rose from 14th to seventh in adjusted sack price. They have been simply OK in opposition to the run, however that cross protection was a factor to behold.
Our way too early DVOA projections have the Payments atop the defensive rankings once more subsequent 12 months, alongside a top-10 offense. That is sufficient to place them as the most effective crew within the convention; nothing about 2021 screams “fluke.” Plus, you already know, including Von Miller tends to assist. Simply ask the Rams.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (+1.25)
Projected DVOA: -10.5%; -0.96 normal deviations
Precise DVOA: 3.8%; +0.30 normal deviations
Our projections had the Eagles within the backside 10 of all three phases of the sport. That was spot-on defensively, however nobody noticed Philadelphia managing to generate an above-average offense in 2021.
Bear in mind, Doug Pederson had simply been fired, and Carson Wentz despatched packing to Indianapolis. The Eagles have been coming off of a -18.8% offensive DVOA and wanted a full reboot offensively, to the purpose the place swallowing Wentz’s large contract in alternate for future draft picks was a defensible concept. Stick Jalen Hurts beneath heart, endure by means of a rebuilding 12 months when you see what you have obtained, and be loaded sufficient to usher in the fellows you really need in 2022.
Properly, Hurts was … advantageous. A 0.4% DVOA is not going to lock him in because the undisputed passer of the longer term, nevertheless it was a major bounce from his -17.6% mark in restricted rookie motion. He obtained to the purpose the place the Eagles may use an improve at quarterback moderately than needing an improve. Baseline competence on the quarterback place was a welcome change of tempo, and that alone would have shot the Eagles previous our projections. However the Eagles additionally jumped from 18th to 3rd in speeding DVOA as Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen pivoted midseason to focus their offense on a speeding assault which stretched defenses from sideline to sideline, at all times had the specter of the cell Hurts breaking off and working, and opened up the deep crossing routes to DeVonta Smith that made up nearly all of the Philly passing offense. The Eagles’ offensive DVOA was projected at -6.2%; they completed all the best way as much as 8.2% and grabbed a wild-card spot within the course of.
The Eagles and Hurts must preserve enhancing on offense to keep away from getting caught in seventh-seed no man’s land. Hurts’ success as virtually an possibility participant in November and December would not appear more likely to be sustainable if he would not take a step ahead as a passer as effectively. A receiver or two who may catch passes over the center would probably assist.
3. New England Patriots (+1.42)
Projected DVOA: 4.7%, +0.43 normal deviations
Precise DVOA: 23.3%, +1.84 normal deviations
We may in all probability simply sort “Mac Jones” on this entry and go away it at that. The final knowledge was that Jones had the very best ground of the the entire rookie quarterbacks, however I do not suppose anybody was anticipating his ceiling to be as excessive because it was. Our projections had the Patriots twenty third in offensive DVOA at -5.9%, primarily based largely on the premise that Jones was a rung beneath the opposite rookie starters—we weren’t even positive he was going to beat out Cam Newton till per week earlier than the season started, in spite of everything.
Jones’ 6.1% passing DVOA was eleventh out of the 82 rookies who’ve certified for our leaderboards since 1983; his 620 DYAR ranks tenth. Sure, he was working in an above-average scenario for a rookie passer, however Jones was in a position to take his school accuracy and decision-making and translate them pretty seamlessly to Josh McDaniels’ offense—removed from a given for any rookie passer. Jones had an 85.2% catchable cross price per SIS charting, firmly in the midst of the league; Zach Wilson and Justin Fields held the final two slots, whereas Trevor Lawrence was about midway between them and Jones. And it wasn’t all dink-and-dunks, both; Jones regularly obtained higher at throwing deeper passes because the season went alongside. He isn’t at a stage the place he was singlehandedly main New England to glory, however rookies are sometimes lead weights as they adapt to the NFL recreation. Jones seemed prepared for prime time from Day 1, and the Patriots’ offense benefitted.
It isn’t all Jones, thoughts you. New England’s protection was projected at -6.7%, however really completed at -12.8%. A big a part of that’s the issue in valuing all of the gamers the Patriots added this 12 months. The return of the entire 2020 COVID opt-outs plus some main spending in free company meant that the Patriots had a internet approximate worth over alternative change of +31, the most important whole added since at the very least 2003. If you’re setting information for bringing expertise in, it may be onerous for projection fashions to actually quantify the impact it should have. It seems, getting a bunch of fine gamers typically makes a crew higher than they have been earlier than. Who knew!
The Patriots might have some bother residing as much as these numbers subsequent season. Defensively, they’ve misplaced J.C. Jackson, Kyle Van Noy, and others. Their prime exterior receiver stays Nelson Agholor, which is considerably lower than preferrred for Jones as he continues to develop. Jones is three steps forward of the remainder of the rookie class, however he must preserve enhancing if he will be the long-term reply on the quarterback place. However suffice to say that the Patriots will not be projected twenty third once more getting into 2022.
2. Los Angeles Chargers (+1.42)
Projected DVOA: -8.0%; -0.73 normal deviations
Precise DVOA: 8.7%; +0.69 normal deviations
Whereas they do not fairly hit the highest spot on our listing, you can make the argument that the Chargers have been our largest miss. They went from the underside 12 in our projections to the highest 12 within the standings, in spite of everything. They nonetheless simply missed out on the postseason, however with the attainable exception of the Colts, no crew went from projected afterthought to playoff contender fairly as a lot because the Chargers did.
We projected the Chargers with a 3.8% defensive DVOA; they really underperformed that at 4.8%. We projected them with a -2.8% particular groups DVOA; they barely cleared that at -2.6%. We projected them with a -1.4% offensive DVOA and so they jumped to fifteen.9%, fourth-best within the league. In Football Outsiders Almanac 2021, we wrote that “it’s optimistic to imagine Herbert can lead a top-three offense proper now with the intention to make up for the protection.” I imply, technically, we nailed it; fourth place is in reality not top-three.
Quarterbacks usually make vital jumps between Yr 1 and Yr 2, however Justin Herbert was so good as a rookie that it was simple to suppose that he had already arrived, absolutely fashioned. How a lot may you actually count on him to leap from his 10.2% DVOA as a rookie, eighth finest amongst first-year quarterbacks in our database? Properly, it seems you can count on him to leap to 17.4% with a DYAR within the prime 5 within the league, combining his never-questioned arm expertise with a stage of accuracy and decision-making that’s frankly surprising, contemplating how he performed at Oregon. The Chargers additionally noticed a large enchancment of their offensive line, going from disastrous to satisfactory, and so they did not find yourself lacking Hunter Henry in any respect. Nonetheless, outperforming the projection was 99% Herbert’s continued ascension into an upper-tier passer.
And the Chargers might be higher subsequent season, with Brandon Staley having a 12 months to each set up his new protection and a busy free company interval to load up on gamers who can really play. It is only a disgrace for them that they are enjoying within the AFC West. It is virtually unthinkable {that a} participant on Herbert’s trajectory may go three straight years with out making the postseason, proper?
1. Dallas Cowboys (+1.94)
Projected DVOA: 5.6%; +0.51 normal deviations
Precise DVOA: 30.9%; +2.45 normal deviations
Our prime overperforming crew began the 12 months projected to simply squeak into the highest 10 in DVOA. They completed the season tops overall for the primary time for the reason that dynasty years of the Nineties. It could be onerous to think about this season having gone a lot better for America’s Staff, assuming you stopped paying consideration minutes after Week 18 ended.
The Cowboys outperformed projections on either side of the ball. Offensively, it is a story of the Cowboys beginning out extremely strongly by means of six weeks, with a 24.9% offensive DVOA. Dak Prescott then injured his calf and the Cowboys fell to six.4% the remainder of the best way as his restricted mobility hampered what Dallas was attempting to do. That 6.4% mark principally matches their preseason projection of 6.7%, however enjoying a 3rd of the season at a excessive stage is sufficient to preserve Dallas’ total offensive DVOA at 13.4%, practically seven factors larger than projected. It was simply an surprising twist that the Prescott damage limiting the Cowboys’ offense was a brand new one in 2021 versus the extreme ankle dislocation from 2020.
Defensively, nonetheless, Dan Quinn got here in and turned issues round. We had the Cowboys projected firmly in the midst of the pack with a 1.2% defensive DVOA. They completed the 12 months second at -15.2%. A few of that’s Quinn producing a way more understandable scheme than Mike Nolan, doing a a lot better job of placing guys in place to succeed and putting in a system related sufficient to what the Cowboys ran pre-Nolan to let the veterans keep snug. Phenom Micah Parsons was the much-deserved defensive rookie of the 12 months, no matter questions on his precise place. He needed to play extra snaps than preferrred at linebacker as a result of the defensive position of DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, Neville Gallimore, and Osa Odihizuwa was an absolute monster of a unit. And you then had the turnovers—we will argue all we wish about Trevon Diggs’ underlying protection talents, nevertheless it seems intercepting 11 passes is usually talking a Good Factor, as is the protection as an entire main the league with 34 takeaways. That ball-hawking, harassing protection turned Dallas from a superb crew to 1 with ideas of Tremendous Bowl glory. Possibly subsequent 12 months?
The Cowboys entered the offseason first in our way too early projections, nevertheless it hasn’t precisely been a spectacular offseason thus far—it seems like half the crew is in “win now!” mode whereas the opposite half is dumping gamers like Amari Cooper to attempt to save cap area. I might count on the protection to come back considerably again right down to Earth as takeaways regress in direction of the imply. However they saved Quinn, which is big, and the chances of Prescott getting damage three years in a row must be low. Dallas must be proper within the combine as soon as once more subsequent season.
