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NL East 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

February 23, 2024

An important race is in retailer for the Nationwide League East in 2024.

Properly, let me make clear. There must be an incredible race between two of the division’s 5 golf equipment, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. The opposite three groups will basically function bystanders, watching placidly from a substantial distance.

That’s the forecast from my history-based prediction system, which compares the three-year data (2021-2023) of present golf equipment in opposition to the corresponding performances of 1,288 groups courting again to the appearance of free company in 1976.

My pc sifted by means of almost half a century of knowledge to isolate the 50 closest matches for every present-day crew — that’s, the 50 golf equipment from the previous whose three-year data basically mirrored these of a present member of the NL East.

The following performances of the 50 closest matches (CM) ought to — theoretically, at the least — give us an concept of how every division member will carry out within the yr forward.

Right here’s an instance: The 2021-2023 Braves matched most intently with the 2009-2011 Phillies, who slipped to a .500 document in 2012. That’s not a very good omen for the 2024 Braves, although I swiftly word that the subsequent eight golf equipment on Atlanta’s match checklist all certified for the playoffs, beginning with the Braves’ second-ranked CM, the 2001-2003 New York Yankees, who gained 101 video games in 2004.

Right here’s how the Braves’ 50 CMs fared of their subsequent seasons:

I’ve awarded ascending scores to the 4 rungs of this ladder — one level for exceeding .500 as much as 4 factors for a world title. Atlanta earns a complete of 126 factors. That’s the very best sum within the division, although not by a lot. Philadelphia is simply 4 factors behind.

Listed here are the anticipated standings, primarily based on every membership’s collective rating from its 50 CMs:

1. Atlanta Braves, 126 factors
2. Philadelphia Phillies, 122 factors
3. New York Mets, 57 factors
4. Miami Marlins, 39 factors
5. Washington Nationals, 16 factors

Scroll all the way down to see every crew’s forecast, together with its 2023 document, the mixed performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that come the closest of all. Be sure you test the following season for every match. (I take advantage of these abbreviations: W signifies a World Collection winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)

Subsequent week: the Nationwide League Central.

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