Black Monday has come and gone, and now NFL teams will start filling their head coach vacancies. Who will be next in line to step into those openings? Let’s run through the top options that might be hired by teams in need of a coach this offseason.
Ranking the Best 2025 NFL Head Coaching Candidates
Honorable Mention: Drew Petzing (Arizona Cardinals OC), Vance Joseph (Denver Broncos DC), Adam Stenavich (Green Bay Packers OC), Joe Brady (Buffalo Bills OC)
10) Kellen Moore, OC, Philadelphia Eagles
Kellen Moore’s name has been on the head coaching radar for quite some time now, and the more the rules shift toward the offensive side of the ball, the more it’s no wonder. Not only did Moore throw for 14,667 yards during his time as a player at Boise State, but he’s led successful offenses in Dallas, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia as a coordinator.
He’s largely had the benefit of a franchise QB on his roster, but his ability to elevate those talents has been evident since he helped Dak Prescott up his yards per pass rate by 10.8% in his first season with the Cowboys.
His ingenuity has been showcased most in play-action situations. The game is moving toward rewarding those who succeed in these plays — the San Francisco 49ers led in play-action passer rating last season on their way to winning the NFC, while the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs were both top-five in that regard a season ago before meeting in the Super Bowl. Moore is continually improving:
- Cowboys (2019-22): 103.5 play-action passer rating
- Chargers (2023): 107.9 play-action passer rating
- Eagles (2024): 114.5 play-acton passer rating
Philadelphia ranked seventh in red zone trips per game this season, thanks in large part to a suppressed turnover rate.
Under Moore’s watch this season, the Eagles have the fourth-lowest giveaway rate, a large reason why this team is significantly scarier this postseason than they were a season ago (when they ranked 30th in turnover rate).
9) Kliff Kingsbury, OC, Washington Commanders
Kliff Kingsbury was known for some rigid tendencies with the Arizona Cardinals but has shown more flexibility during his first season as the Washington Commanders’ offensive coordinator.
For example, Kingsbury has varied his personnel usage. With the Cardinals, Kingsbury leaned heavily into his wide receivers. Arizona used the eighth-highest rate of 3+ WR sets (69.4%) and the highest rate of 4+ WR sets (17.1%). The 2024 Commanders rank 19th in 3+ WR sets (60.1%) and instead have the 12th-highest rate of 2+ TE sets (33.7%). They’ve only run six plays the entire season with 4+ WRs on the field.
Kingsbury has shown the ability to produce a strong offense while enabling a young dual-threat quarterback. From 2019-22, Kyler Murray ranked second among quarterbacks in rushing yards off designed runs (1,185), behind only Lamar Jackson. Murray averaged 6.0 yards per carry on these runs. In 2024, Jayden Daniels ranked third among QBs in rushing yards off designed runs behind Jackson and Anthony Richardson.
Additionally, 22.8% of Daniels’ passes have come from outside the pocket, the fourth-highest rate in 2024. The rookie thrived on those plays, averaging the second-most EPA per dropback (0.30) on passes outside the pocket behind only Jackson.
Kingsbury may need to wait at least one more year to wash away the stink from the end of his Cardinals’ head-coaching tenure, but he has undoubtedly done an outstanding job in his first season as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator.
8) Anthony Weaver, DC, Miami Dolphins
The narrative in Miami often surrounds the offense and its explosive potential, but Anthony Weaver, the defensive coordinator, has put together an impressive resume in his first season with the team.
This season, the Dolphins’ defense allowed touchdowns at the third-lowest rate, thanks in large part to the second-most efficient red zone unit in the sport. The NFL is a league of turning scoring chances into seven points and the ability to hold strong in those spots is becoming increasingly valuable (breakout teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos rank better than the 80th percentile in that stat this season, as do the Super Bowl favorites in the Chiefs), thus highlighting Weaver’s ability to thrive when counted on the most.
From a more macro perspective, he has Miami ranked seventh in our all-inclusive Defense+ metric, up from 13th a season ago. Weaver spent some time in an assistant coaching role while with the Baltimore Ravens (2022-23), which helps his resume too, as it gives him some experience in a position of power that not all coordinators have.
If there’s a nit-to-pick, it’s in the aggression metrics. This season, the Dolphins rank 22nd in blitz rate and 20th when deciding to bring an extra defender into the equation. In a league that skews toward the offense, making the quarterback uncomfortable is critical and it’s something that Weaver’s unit has struggled with this year. That, however, is a very minor flaw and if insulated with the right pieces and/or coaching staff, those are the type of numbers that can flip in a hurry.
Weaver turns 45 years old in July and we’ve seen that early-to-mid 40s age be a sweet spot for head coaches when getting their first job. From Bill Belichick to John Harbaugh, we’ve seen plenty of defensive minds cut their teeth at the professional level before getting a head coaching chance in this age range and succeed – could Weaver be next?
7) Pete Carroll, Free Agent
The hiring of Pete Carroll comes with a very easy data point to reference and it’s a convincing one: success.
During his peak time in Seattle (2012-20), the Seahawks (68.4%) trailed only the dynastic New England Patriots in win percentage, had four divisional titles, and, of course, went to the Super Bowl in consecutive years (winning it all in 2013). That’s not a bad run for a coach who took over a franchise that won a total of nine games in the two seasons prior to his hire (in his 14 seasons: 9.8 wins per season).
Even at the end of that peak, Carroll was getting a ton out of his players. Despite having a defensive background, he was able to put together an offense around a veteran QB that earned a ‘B’ in our Offense+ grading metric (for reference, that’s a higher mark than the Minnesota Vikings or Kansas City Chiefs produced this season).
Russell Wilson had a career season (68.8% complete and 40 touchdowns) and it showed that a Carroll team could succeed at a high level, even five years removed from that Legion of Boom era that dominated on that side of the ball.
Speaking of that Legion of Boom, the winning equity they brought to the table ranks up there with any defensive unit in the history of this game. During their peak (2012-15), the Seahawks coughed up just 1.33 points per possession, a rate that was 11.9% better than any other defense over that stretch and would have paced the league this season by over 18%.
The secondary generated the highlights and the sound bites, but this unit excelled at everything and the thought of rekindling that potential is enticing for any franchise. Carroll cut his teeth at the collegiate level on the defensive side of the ball and there is where he made his first impact on the NFL, so it stands to reason that a team could sell itself on his ability to build up that side of the ball.
Carroll’s resume on the offensive end is highlighted by the selecting and developing of Wilson while the defensive peak is stamped by one of the most dominant runs we’ve ever seen.
6) Mike McCarthy, Free Agent
McCarthy went 49-35 in five seasons with the Cowboys but won just seven games this season, failing to live up to preseason expectations.
Dallas went 12-5 in McCarthy’s second, third, and fourth seasons but earned no more than one playoff win in those three appearances. Jerry Jones ultimately decided not to renew McCarthy’s deal, but he is already drawing interest from other teams.
The NFL is a game of inches, and during the McCarthy era, the Cowboys were capable of playing those tight spots. Since 2020, Dallas ranked fifth in winning percentage in one-score games (record: 22-16). Those regular season numbers didn’t carry over to the postseason (0-2 in one-score games).
Still, it fueled their ability to qualify for three postseasons under McCarthy, and if you look at the teams that are in the market for a head coach, they are a few coin-flip wins away from being much more competitive. Here are some examples of underachieving 2024 teams that could have had a very different story this season if they performed better in these one-score contests:
With the margins so thin, winning the final 15 minutes can often shift the fortunes of a team in any given season. During McCarthy’s tenure in Dallas, the Cowboys posted the second-best fourth-quarter point differential (+153, trailing only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buccaneers).
The teams that end the game strong are often those who have great attention to detail and excel at adjusting as the game goes on. Those are traits any team would love to have and something that McCarthy’s teams have done consistently (the Green Bay Packers also ranked eighth during his time in town).
5) Todd Monken, OC, Baltimore Ravens
Todd Monken was a collegiate quarterback, and much was expected of him when he elected to return to the professional game after spending three seasons in Georgia as their offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach. He not only lived up to the hype, he’s overachieved.
During his two seasons with the Ravens, Baltimore leads the AFC in scoring, with Lamar Jackson playing like an MVP for almost every moment. Many coaches are beholden to a system and are tempted to bend their roster to fit their system, but this season has proven that Monken is more than happy to adjust to the strengths of his specific roster.
In 2023, the Ravens ranked 11th in pass rate over expectation, opting to let Jackson decide games rather than banking on a running back without a proven bellcow. That faith earned his quarterback some hardware, and he won an NFL-high 13 games.
Last offseason, Baltimore jumped at the opportunity to add Derrick Henry, a player who is essentially an offense unto himself. Monken not only adjusted his play-calling (29th in pass rate over expectation this season), but he leveraged his new-look unit to further the development of his franchise quarterback.
We are talking about one of the best offensive minds in the sport who is still on the right side of 60 years old. Due to the direction of the NFL, a coach like this is currently valued as high as ever.
4) Aaron Glenn, DC, Detroit Lions
Aaron Glenn has been involved on the defensive side of the ball in a coaching capacity in the NFL for over a decade now, this coming after a 15-year career as a defensive back that saw him earn three trips to the Pro Bowl.
Glenn was a defensive backs coach with the New Orleans Saints from 2016-20, but the Detroit Lions came knocking ahead of the 2021 season in desperate need of help. That season, their defense ranked 31st or 32nd in red zone efficiency, points per drive, turnover rate, and average opponent drive distance. They lost six of seven games to close that 2020 season and were outscored 252-150 in the process (no other team allowed more than 237 points over that stretch).
Wasting no time: The #Bears have requested interviews with #Lions OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn for their head coaching job, per sources.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 6, 2025
They didn’t need help – at the end of that 5-11 campaign, they needed a culture rebrand, something the experienced Glenn brought and has sustained during his time in the Motor City:
- 2020 (before Glenn took over): 2.95 points allowed per drive
- 2021: 2.52
- 2022: 2.28
- 2023: 2.03
- 2024: 1.91
He may not have youth on his side the way the coordinator on the other side of the ball does (Ben Johnson is 38 years old while Glenn is 52), but that’s unlikely to lower his stock much in the eyes of NFL franchises. He’s not “old,” and we did just see Dan Quinn (54 years old) guide the Commanders to the playoffs after spending the previous three years as a defensive coordinator. You could argue that he was less appealing than Glenn, considering that he had already been fired as a head coach (Falcons, 2020).
3) Liam Coen, OC, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This season was Liam Coen’s first in Tampa Bay, and he immediately led one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Buccaneers are third in PFN’s Offense+ metric, a huge leap from last year’s 22nd-place ranking.
Under Coen’s coaching, Baker Mayfield has posted one of the best seasons in Buccaneers history and ranks eighth in EPA per play after ranking 14th in 2023. Mayfield and the Bucs offense have produced at elite levels despite missing Chris Godwin for the final 10 games of the regular season and Mike Evans missing three.
One key development to Mayfield’s sensational season has been his ability to avoid pressure. In 2023, Mayfield was pressured on 34% of his dropbacks and had the fifth-deepest aDOT (8.6 air yards). His tendency to hunt for big plays led to some explosive games and caused him to invite more pressure. In 2024, Mayfield is being pressured on 24% of his dropbacks, the third-lowest.
OC Liam Coen & @bakermayfield after clinching the NFC South 🥹 pic.twitter.com/ZQs4rlb86G
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 5, 2025
His willingness to get the ball out of his hands earlier is a big part of that. Mayfield’s aDOT has dropped from the fifth-deepest to the seventh-shortest (6.9 air yards).
Also, rookie running back Bucky Irving has been a revelation, seizing control of Tampa Bay’s backfield and leading all rookies in scrimmage yards. Coen helped the Bucs’ rushing attack go from worst in the NFL to top-five this season.
Mayfield isn’t the only quarterback that Coen has helped develop. Although Will Levis hasn’t worked out in the NFL, he took a huge step at Kentucky in 2021 under Coen’s tutelage. After two seasons as a backup at Penn State, Levis transferred to Kentucky in 2021 and was responsible for 33 touchdowns (24 passing, nine rushing), fourth-most in the SEC that season. That season vaulted Levis into the first-round discussion. And while he ultimately ended up being a second-round pick, Levis’ 2021 season stands out as an example of quarterback development under Coen’s watch.
2) Jesse Minter, DC, Los Angeles Chargers
It’s hard to do much better than Jesse Minter’s last three seasons as defensive coordinator for the Chargers (2024) and Michigan (2022-23). The Chargers have the top-ranked scoring defense in Minter’s first season, while the Wolverines ranked first in the FBS in 2023 and seventh in 2022. The turnaround in Los Angeles has been particularly impressive.
The Chargers faltered under Brandon Staley, never ranking higher than 24th in PFN’s Defense+ metric. Now, the Chargers are fourth in Defense+ despite largely returning the same personnel from 2023’s disappointing team. Minter was also an assistant under John Harbaugh with the Ravens from 2017-20. In those seasons, Baltimore finished with a top-10 scoring defense every season.
Strong pass defenses typically generate high levels of pressure. Even if the sack total isn’t high, there is a huge correlation between pressure and successful pass defenses. And yet, the 2024 Chargers have produced an elite pass defense without even an average pass rush. Despite big names like Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, the Chargers rank 20th in pressure rate.
Regardless, Los Angeles has managed to average the fifth-best EPA per dropback on defense. If the Chargers can ever begin to generate above-average rates of pressure, let alone elite rates, that bodes well for sustained success.
1) Brian Flores, DC, Minnesota Vikings
Flores is a schematic problem solver. Tasked with revamping a Vikings defense that was light on talent in 2023, the former Miami Dolphins head coach made it work.
He sent blitzes (49.3%) and dropped eight into coverage (20.8%) at league-high rates, per TruMedia, while guiding a defense that somehow finished 11th in DVOA.
Flores has maintained his diabolical sense of scheming this season, playing a large part in Minnesota’s standout season. Sam Darnold gets a lot of attention, and he deserves it, but this defense has played a huge role in the sustained success throughout 2024:
- Points Per Drive Allowed: 1st
- Interception Rate: 1st
- Opponent Passer Rating: 1st
- Opponent Three-and-Out Rate: 6th
In all three stops as the defensive play-caller or head coach, Flores improved the defense:
- Flores took over as the Patriots’ defensive play-caller in 2018 following the departure of Matt Patricia and saw New England jump from 27th in EPA per play to seventh.
- Flores’ Dolphins defense ranked 30th in EPA per play in his first season in 2019, but it jumped to fourth in 2020 and finished sixth in 2021.
- Flores’ Vikings defense ranked 20th in EPA per play in his first season as defensive coordinator in 2023 but ranked second in 2024.
From a Defense+ perspective, the Dolphins improved every year, going from 32nd in 2019 to eighth in 2020 and sixth in 2021. Similarly, the Vikings have gone from 23rd in Defense+ in 2023 to third in 2024.
Unlike many members of Bill Belichick’s coaching staff, Flores has shown the ability to adapt his scheme to his current surroundings. For example, the Patriots traditionally played high levels of man coverage, which Flores brought to the Dolphins. Miami played the highest level of man coverage in the NFL (50%) during Flores’ head-coaching tenure from 2019-21.
However, the Vikings have played man coverage at the fourth-lowest rate (18%) during Flores’ two seasons in Minnesota. He’s managed to turn man coverage into an effective change-up pitch without relying on it, as the Vikings average the second-highest EPA per play in man coverage since 2023.
Also, during Flores’ tenure, the Dolphins committed the seventh-fewest penalties, leading to the third-best penalty yardage differential (651 fewer penalty yards than their opponents). In addition, Miami had a roughly neutral turnover differential under Flores, but much of that was due to the putrid 2019 team. From 2020-21, the Dolphins had the ninth-best turnover differential and forced the fourth-most turnovers in the league on defense.
