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AL East 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

February 5, 2024

The previous presents a window to the long run.

That’s the idea behind my annual predictions of baseball’s six divisional races. I examine every group’s report in the course of the earlier three years towards the corresponding marks for each membership that performed in the course of the period of free company (which started in 1976), and I exploit my findings to forecast the upcoming season.

My purpose is to search out parallels from the previous that supply hints in regards to the future — an evaluation primarily based purely on historical past, not on roster composition or offseason acquisitions.

I’ll be unveiling my predictions a division on the time, beginning immediately with the American League East and continuing by way of the subsequent 5 Fridays.

And what in regards to the AL East? My crystal ball sees the Toronto Blue Jays rising because the divisional champion, a task they haven’t loved since 2015 and (earlier than that) 1993.

My laptop components remoted the 50 golf equipment from the previous that almost all intently resembled the 2021-2023 Blue Jays, a listing topped by the 1979-1981 Brewers. Milwaukee went on to win the American League pennant in 1982 (and practically take a seven-game World Sequence), an awfully good signal for the 2024 Blue Jays.

Right here’s how Toronto’s 50 closest matches (CMs) fared of their subsequent seasons:

My divisional predictions are primarily based on the 4 steps of the ladder above. Every of the 50 CMs that topped .500 is price one level, with the next rungs carrying values of two, three, and 4 factors. Toronto finishes with a complete of 111 factors.

My AL East forecast for the approaching yr is decided by the cumulative success of every group’s 50 CMs:

1. Toronto Blue Jays, 111 factors
2. Tampa Bay Rays, 105 factors
3. Baltimore Orioles, 100 factors
4. New York Yankees, 83 factors
5. Boston Crimson Sox, 58 factors

My components matched every present membership towards the three-year data of 1,288 groups since 1976. (A few notes: Enlargement groups clearly couldn’t be added to this combine till they performed three seasons. And I lower off all comparisons after 2021, so that each membership would have no less than two years of future information.)

Look under for every group’s ensuing forecast, together with its 2023 report, the collective performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that got here the closest of all. Pay particular consideration to the next season for every match; that’s what’s necessary right here. (A short phrase in regards to the parenthetical abbreviations: W signifies a World Sequence winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)

We’ll transfer on to the AL Central subsequent week.

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