The previous presents a window to the long run.
That’s the idea behind my annual predictions of baseball’s six divisional races. I examine every group’s report in the course of the earlier three years towards the corresponding marks for each membership that performed in the course of the period of free company (which started in 1976), and I exploit my findings to forecast the upcoming season.
My purpose is to search out parallels from the previous that supply hints in regards to the future — an evaluation primarily based purely on historical past, not on roster composition or offseason acquisitions.
I’ll be unveiling my predictions a division on the time, beginning immediately with the American League East and continuing by way of the subsequent 5 Fridays.
And what in regards to the AL East? My crystal ball sees the Toronto Blue Jays rising because the divisional champion, a task they haven’t loved since 2015 and (earlier than that) 1993.
My laptop components remoted the 50 golf equipment from the previous that almost all intently resembled the 2021-2023 Blue Jays, a listing topped by the 1979-1981 Brewers. Milwaukee went on to win the American League pennant in 1982 (and practically take a seven-game World Sequence), an awfully good signal for the 2024 Blue Jays.
Right here’s how Toronto’s 50 closest matches (CMs) fared of their subsequent seasons:
My divisional predictions are primarily based on the 4 steps of the ladder above. Every of the 50 CMs that topped .500 is price one level, with the next rungs carrying values of two, three, and 4 factors. Toronto finishes with a complete of 111 factors.
My AL East forecast for the approaching yr is decided by the cumulative success of every group’s 50 CMs:
1. Toronto Blue Jays, 111 factors
2. Tampa Bay Rays, 105 factors
3. Baltimore Orioles, 100 factors
4. New York Yankees, 83 factors
5. Boston Crimson Sox, 58 factors
My components matched every present membership towards the three-year data of 1,288 groups since 1976. (A few notes: Enlargement groups clearly couldn’t be added to this combine till they performed three seasons. And I lower off all comparisons after 2021, so that each membership would have no less than two years of future information.)
Look under for every group’s ensuing forecast, together with its 2023 report, the collective performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that got here the closest of all. Pay particular consideration to the next season for every match; that’s what’s necessary right here. (A short phrase in regards to the parenthetical abbreviations: W signifies a World Sequence winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)
We’ll transfer on to the AL Central subsequent week.
A brand new installment will arrive in your electronic mail upon posting
2024 prediction factors: 111
2023 report: 89-73 (.549, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 22 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 38 of fifty
CM #1: Brewers (1979-1981) — 1982 report of 95-67 (.586, LP)
CM #2: White Sox (1990-1992) — 1993 report of 94-68 (.580, P)
CM #3: Athletics (2003-2005) — 2006 report of 93-69 (.574, P)
CM #4: Yankees (2019-2021) — 2022 report of 99-63 (.611, P)
CM #5: Angels (2004-2006) — 2007 report of 94-68 (.580, P)
2024 prediction factors: 105
2023 report: 99-63 (.611, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 18 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 32 of fifty
CM #1: Indians (1997-1999) — 2000 report of 90-72 (.556)
CM #2: Braves (2000-2002) — 2003 report of 101-61 (.623, P)
CM #3: Nationals (2014-2016) — 2017 report of 97-65 (.599, P)
CM #4: White Sox (1991-1993) — 1994 report of 67-46 (.593)
CM #5: Crimson Sox (1975-1977) — 1978 report of 99-64 (.607)
2024 prediction factors: 100
2023 report: 101-61 (.623, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 20 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 36 of fifty
CM #1: Mets (1983-1985) — 1986 report of 108-54 (.667, WLP)
CM #2: Athletics (1979-1981) — 1982 report of 68-94 (.420)
CM #3: Pirates (2011-2013) — 2014 report of 88-74 (.543, P)
CM #4: Angels (1980-1982) — 1983 report of 70-92 (.432)
CM #5: Padres (1994-1996) — 1997 report of 76-86 (.469)
2024 prediction factors: 83
2023 report: 82-80 (.506)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 5 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 14 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 28 of fifty
CM #1: Royals (1979-1981) — 1982 report of 90-72 (.556)
CM #2: Dodgers (2008-2010) — 2011 report of 82-79 (.509)
CM #3: Crimson Sox (1985-1987) — 1988 report of 89-73 (.549, P)
CM #4: Reds (1994-1996) — 1997 report of 76-86 (.469)
CM #5: Giants (1988-1990) — 1991 report of 75-87 (.463)
2024 prediction factors: 58
2023 report: 78-84 (.481)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 9 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 20 of fifty
CM #1: Padres (1989-1991) — 1992 report of 82-80 (.506)
CM #2: Mets (2019-2021) — 2022 report of 101-61 (.623, P)
CM #3: White Sox (1996-1998) — 1999 report of 75-86 (.466)
CM #4: Rays (2013-2015) — 2016 report of 68-94 (.420)
CM #5: Royals (1994-1996) — 1997 report of 67-94 (.416)
