AL West 2023 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

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It’s a easy matter to foretell the champion of the American League’s Western Division. You actually can’t go incorrect by putting in Houston as the favourite.

The Astros have dominated the AL West since 2017 — taking 5 of the previous six divisional crowns — a interval they bookended with World Collection titles in 2017 and 2022.

The only real exception was the truncated Covid season of 2020, when Houston squeaked into the expanded playoffs with an atypical sub-.500 report (29-31). However the Astros salvaged their delight by advancing all the best way to the AL Championship Collection, which they misplaced to the Tampa Bay Rays in seven video games.

So it’s Houston once more in 2023, proper?

Proper.

My forecasting system matched the 2020-2022 efficiency of every AL West membership in opposition to the three-year data for 1,258 groups all through the free-agent period, which started in 1976. It then evaluated the next data of the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every present membership. (Click here to learn more.)

Thirty-one of Houston’s 50 CMs went to the playoffs of their subsequent seasons, thereby stamping the Astros as the category of the AL West in 2023. The runner-up Seattle Mariners had 14 CMs qualify for the postseason.

Historical past means that the opposite three groups within the division will end properly out of the working. Solely eight of the 50 closest matches for the Los Angeles Angels had been playoff-bound, as had been seven for the Texas Rangers and three for the Oakland Athletics.

Right here, in consequence, are the projected 2023 standings for the AL West:

  • 1. Astros

  • 2. Mariners

  • 3. Angels

  • 4. Rangers

  • 5. Athletics

You’ll discover breakdowns for all 5 groups under. Every abstract begins with the membership’s 2022 report, accompanied by postseason abbreviations (if relevant) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Then come the cumulative outcomes (within the subsequent season) for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (primarily based on my 2020-2022 comparisons), adopted by an inventory of the 5 best CMs with their subsequent data.

If you wish to know extra this forecast, you’ll discover particulars within the newly revealed Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook. Different hyperlinks will take you to my earlier forecasts for the AL East and AL Central.

A brand new installment will arrive in your electronic mail every Tuesday and Friday morning

  • 2022 report: 106-56 (.654, WLP)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 14 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 31 of fifty

  • CM #1: Indians (1993-1995); 1996 report: 99-62 (.615, P)

  • CM #2: Athletics (1987-1989); 1990 report: 103-59 (.636, LP)

  • CM #3: Dodgers (1976-1978); 1979 report: 79-83 (.488)

  • CM #4: Indians (2015-2017); 2018 report: 91-71 (.562, P)

  • CM #5: Mariners (1999-2001); 2002 report: 93-69 (.574)

  • 2022 report: 90-72 (.556, P)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 14 of fifty

  • CM #1: Rays (2016-2018); 2019 report: 96-66 (.593, P)

  • CM #2: Royals (1992-1994); 1995 report: 70-74 (.486)

  • CM #3: Mets (1974-1976); 1977 report: 64-98 (.395)

  • CM #4: Cardinals (1990-1992); 1993 report: 87-75 (.537)

  • CM #5: Blue Jays (2004-2006); 2007 report: 83-79 (.512)

Learn in regards to the Corridor of Fame’s checkered historical past (and unsure future)

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  • 2022 report: 73-89 (.451)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

  • CM #1: Athletics (1983-1985); 1986 report: 76-86 (.469)

  • CM #2: Indians (1988-1990); 1991 report: 57-105 (.352)

  • CM #3: Padres (1999-2001); 2002 report: 66-96 (.407)

  • CM #4: Giants (1975-1977); 1978 report: 89-73 (.549)

  • CM #5: Athletics (1984-1986); 1987 report: 81-81 (.500)

  • 2022 report: 68-94 (.420)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty

  • CM #1: Phillies (1988-1990); 1991 report: 78-84 (.481)

  • CM #2: Phillies (1996-1998); 1999 report: 77-85 (.475)

  • CM #3: Royals (2009-2011); 2012 report: 72-90 (.444)

  • CM #4: Nationals (2008-2010); 2011 report: 80-81 (.497)

  • CM #5: Cubs (1980-1982); 1983 report: 71-91 (.438)

  • 2022 report: 60-102 (.370)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

  • CM #1: Rangers (2012-2014); 2015 report: 88-74 (.543, P)

  • CM #2: Cubs (2004-2006); 2007 report: 85-77 (.525, P)

  • CM #3: Reds (1980-1982); 1983 report: 74-88 (.457)

  • CM #4: Reds (1999-2001); 2002 report: 78-84 (.481)

  • CM #5: Twins (2009-2011); 2012 report: 66-96 (.407)

A whole rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to come back

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