NL Central 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

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Please enable a quick brag.

Virtually all the specialists picked the St. Louis Cardinals to win the Nationwide League Central final yr. CBS Sports activities, for instance, convened a panel of six baseball reporters. 5 selected St. Louis. ESPN’s preview put the Playing cards atop what it known as “a tender division.” The Sporting News agreed.

My laptop method dared to dissent, establishing Milwaukee because the divisional favourite. And the Brewers, in fact, went on to win the NL Central by a nine-game margin. The Cardinals completed final.

I make no declare to clairvoyance. My history-based prediction system has issued a number of clunkers since 2021, however that’s not the difficulty right here.

What’s vital is the upcoming 2024 season, during which my method as soon as once more defies the consensus by choosing Milwaukee within the Nationwide League Central, regardless that the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds appear to be extra common with the betting public.

So be it.

My method matched the three-year data (2021-2023) of all 5 NL Central golf equipment in opposition to the corresponding marks for 1,288 groups because the introduction of free company in 1976.

It recognized the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every present crew — the 50 golf equipment from the previous whose three-year data primarily mirrored these of a present-day member of the NL Central.

The next performances of these 50 groups ought to recommend to us how every division member will carry out within the yr forward. (In principle, no less than.)

Right here’s how the Brewers’ 50 CMs fared of their subsequent seasons:

I assigned ascending scores to the ladder’s 4 rungs — one level for topping .500 as much as 4 factors for successful a world title. That offers Milwaukee a complete of 98 factors, simply the very best sum within the division.

Listed below are the NL Central’s predicted standings:

  • 1. Milwaukee Brewers, 98 factors

  • 2. Chicago Cubs, 85 factors

  • 3. St. Louis Cardinals, 56 factors

  • 4. Cincinnati Reds, 28 factors

  • 5. Pittsburgh Pirates, 28 factors

A tie-breaker offers Cincinnati the sting over Pittsburgh for fourth place. The CMs for each golf equipment did not win a single world title, however the Reds had the slightest of benefits on the subsequent rung (one league title to none).

Scroll all the way down to see every crew’s forecast, together with its 2023 report, the mixed performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that got here the closest of all. You should definitely verify the next season for every match. (These are the abbreviations: W signifies a World Collection winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)

Subsequent week: the Nationwide League West.

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  • 2024 prediction factors: 98

  • 2023 report: 92-70 (.568, P)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 6 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 19 of fifty

  • Topped .500 in subsequent season: 34 of fifty

  • CM #1: Crimson Sox (1988-1990) — 1991 report of 84-78 (.519)

  • CM #2: Braves (2005-2007) — 2008 report of 72-90 (.444)

  • CM #3: Dodgers (2006-2008) — 2009 report of 95-67 (.586, P)

  • CM #4: Dodgers (2000-2002) — 2003 report of 85-77 (.525)

  • CM #5: Orioles (1975-1977) — 1978 report of 90-71 (.559)

  • 2024 prediction factors: 85

  • 2023 report: 83-79 (.512)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 15 of fifty

  • Topped .500 in subsequent season: 32 of fifty

  • CM #1: Brewers (2015-2017) — 2018 report of 96-67 (.589, P)

  • CM #2: Rangers (2007-2009) — 2010 report of 90-72 (.556, LP)

  • CM #3: Tigers (1976-1978) — 1979 report of 85-76 (.528)

  • CM #4: Rockies (2015-2017) — 2018 report of 91-72 (.558, P)

  • CM #5: Diamondbacks (2005-2007) — 2008 report of 82-80 (.506)

  • 2024 prediction factors: 56

  • 2023 report: 71-91 (.438)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty

  • Topped .500 in subsequent season: 20 of fifty

  • CM #1: Mets (2007-2009) — 2010 report of 79-83 (.488)

  • CM #2: Cubs (2019-2021) — 2022 report of 74-88 (.457)

  • CM #3: Dodgers (2003-2005) — 2006 report of 88-74 (.543, P)

  • CM #4: Reds (1987-1989) — 1990 report of 91-71 (.562, WLP)

  • CM #5: Crimson Sox (2010-2012) — 2013 report of 97-65 (.599, WLP)

  • 2024 prediction factors: 28

  • 2023 report: 82-80 (.506)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

  • Topped .500 in subsequent season: 15 of fifty

  • CM #1: Expos/Nationals (2003-2005) — 2006 report of 71-91 (.438)

  • CM #2: Reds (2000-2002) — 2003 report of 69-93 (.426)

  • CM #3: White Sox (1985-1987) — 1988 report of 71-90 (.441)

  • CM #4: Astros (1974-1976) — 1977 report of 81-81 (.500)

  • CM #5: Reds (1996-1998) — 1999 report of 96-67 (.589)

  • 2024 prediction factors: 28

  • 2023 report: 76-86 (.469)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty

  • Topped .500 in subsequent season: 14 of fifty

  • CM #1: Royals (2009-2011) — 2012 report of 72-90 (.444)

  • CM #2: Mariners (1980-1982) — 1983 report of 60-102 (.370)

  • CM #3: Mariners (2010-2012) — 2013 report of 71-91 (.438)

  • CM #4: White Sox (2017-2019) — 2020 report of 35-25 (.583, P)

  • CM #5: Royals (2018-2020) — 2021 report of 74-88 (.457)



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