The Philadelphia Phillies finally got it done last year, winning their first National League East crown in 13 years. They will repeat the feat in 2025.
So says my prediction formula, which compared the three-year records (2022-2024) of current clubs against the corresponding performances of 1,318 teams dating back to the advent of free agency in 1976.
My computer winnowed through nearly half a century of data to isolate the 50 closest matches (CM) for each current team — the 50 clubs from the past whose three-year performances mirrored those of each present-day member of the NL East. I then checked the subsequent performances of those 50 teams.
Each CM that finished above .500 in the season following its three-year span received a single point. Two more points were awarded for a playoff slot, another three for a league championship, and an extra four for a world title.
The Phillies ended up with 128 prediction points, foreshadowing a fairly easy NL East title. Here is the anticipated order of finish:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Washington Nationals
5. Miami Marlins
Look below for breakdowns for all five teams. Each summary starts with the club’s 2025 prediction points, then its 2024 record, and then the next-year results for its 50 CMs. The final line discloses the very closest match of all. (The next-season record for the closest CM may be at odds with my overall prediction, but don’t be concerned. The cumulative score for all 50 CMs is what really counts.)
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2025 prediction points: 128
2024 record: 95-67
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 5 of 50
Won league title in next season: 8 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 23 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 38 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2013 Rays (92-71)
2025 prediction points: 102
2024 record: 89-73
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 6 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 18 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 36 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2015 Cardinals (100-62)
2025 prediction points: 56
2024 record: 89-73
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 11 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 27 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 1999 Rangers (95-67)
2025 prediction points: 35
2024 record: 71-91
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 7 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 14 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2015 Cubs (97-65)
2025 prediction points: 12
2024 record: 62-100
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 2 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 8 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2017 Twins (85-77)
