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NL West 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

March 10, 2024

It appears pointless to challenge annual predictions for the Nationwide League West.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have gained 10 of the previous 11 divisional crowns. Their solely failure, if you wish to name it that, occurred in 2021, once they completed second regardless of a glowing 106-56 document and superior all the best way to the NL Championship Sequence.

So is it truthful to imagine that the Dodgers will proceed to dominate the NL West in 2024?

Completely.

My history-based prediction system envisions one other divisional crown within the membership’s speedy future, and it’ll in all probability come simply. The Dodgers gained the West by 16 video games final yr. An analogous margin is probably going this season.

My forecast relies on comparisons of the three-year information (2021-2023) of the 5 NL West golf equipment in opposition to corresponding performances of 1,288 big-league groups because the creation of free company in 1976.

My pc remoted the 50 closest matches for every present-day group — that’s, the 50 golf equipment from the previous whose three-year information primarily mirrored these of a present member of the NL West.

It’s my idea that the following performances of the 50 closest matches (CMs) ought to give us a glimpse of the doubtless programs for every division member within the season forward.

That’s excellent news for the 2021-2023 Dodgers, who most carefully resembled Atlanta’s 1991-1993 squads. These Braves went on to publish a formidable 68-46 document earlier than the 1994 season was halted by a strike. An almost-certain playoff berth vanished when that yr’s postseason was canceled.

Right here’s how the Dodgers’ 50 CMs carried out of their subsequent seasons:

Ascending scores are connected to the 4 rungs of this ladder — starting with a single level for exceeding .500 and rising to 4 factors for a world title. Los Angeles earns a complete of 143 factors, simply main the division.

Listed here are the anticipated standings for the Nationwide League West, primarily based on every membership’s collective rating for its 50 CMs:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 143 factors
2. San Diego Padres, 78 factors
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, 71 factors
4. San Francisco Giants, 44 factors
5. Colorado Rockies, 14 factors

Scroll right down to see every group’s forecast, together with its 2023 document, the mixed performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that got here the closest of all. You’ll want to verify the following season for every match. (I take advantage of these abbreviations: W signifies a World Sequence winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)

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