It appears pointless to challenge annual predictions for the Nationwide League West.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have gained 10 of the previous 11 divisional crowns. Their solely failure, if you wish to name it that, occurred in 2021, once they completed second regardless of a glowing 106-56 document and superior all the best way to the NL Championship Sequence.
So is it truthful to imagine that the Dodgers will proceed to dominate the NL West in 2024?
Completely.
My history-based prediction system envisions one other divisional crown within the membership’s speedy future, and it’ll in all probability come simply. The Dodgers gained the West by 16 video games final yr. An analogous margin is probably going this season.
My forecast relies on comparisons of the three-year information (2021-2023) of the 5 NL West golf equipment in opposition to corresponding performances of 1,288 big-league groups because the creation of free company in 1976.
My pc remoted the 50 closest matches for every present-day group — that’s, the 50 golf equipment from the previous whose three-year information primarily mirrored these of a present member of the NL West.
It’s my idea that the following performances of the 50 closest matches (CMs) ought to give us a glimpse of the doubtless programs for every division member within the season forward.
That’s excellent news for the 2021-2023 Dodgers, who most carefully resembled Atlanta’s 1991-1993 squads. These Braves went on to publish a formidable 68-46 document earlier than the 1994 season was halted by a strike. An almost-certain playoff berth vanished when that yr’s postseason was canceled.
Right here’s how the Dodgers’ 50 CMs carried out of their subsequent seasons:
Ascending scores are connected to the 4 rungs of this ladder — starting with a single level for exceeding .500 and rising to 4 factors for a world title. Los Angeles earns a complete of 143 factors, simply main the division.
Listed here are the anticipated standings for the Nationwide League West, primarily based on every membership’s collective rating for its 50 CMs:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 143 factors
2. San Diego Padres, 78 factors
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, 71 factors
4. San Francisco Giants, 44 factors
5. Colorado Rockies, 14 factors
Scroll right down to see every group’s forecast, together with its 2023 document, the mixed performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that got here the closest of all. You’ll want to verify the following season for every match. (I take advantage of these abbreviations: W signifies a World Sequence winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)
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2024 prediction factors: 143
2023 document: 100-62 (.617, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 9 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 29 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 42 of fifty
CM #1: Braves (1991-1993) — 1994 document of 68-46 (.596)
CM #2: Braves (1998-2000) — 2001 document of 88-74 (.543, P)
CM #3: Phillies (2007-2009) — 2010 document of 97-65 (.599, P)
CM #4: Cardinals (2004-2006) — 2007 document of 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Indians (1994-1996) — 1997 document of 86-75 (.534, LP)
2024 prediction factors: 78
2023 document: 82-80 (.506)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 15 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 32 of fifty
CM #1: Dodgers (2010-2012) — 2013 document of 92-70 (.568, P)
CM #2: Blue Jays (2005-2007) — 2008 document of 86-76 (.531)
CM #3: Diamondbacks (2006-2008) — 2009 document of 70-92 (.432)
CM #4: Purple Sox (1980-1982) — 1983 document of 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Phillies (2002-2004) — 2005 document of 88-74 (.543)
2024 prediction factors: 71
2023 document: 84-78 (.519, LP)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 15 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 31 of fifty
CM #1: Blue Jays (1981-1983) — 1984 document of 89-73 (.549)
CM #2: Yankees (1991-1993) — 1994 document of 70-43 (.619)
CM #3: Athletics (1997-1999) — 2000 document of 91-70 (.565, P)
CM #4: Mets (2003-2005) — 2006 document of 97-65 (.599, P)
CM #5: Astros (1991-1993) — 1994 document of 66-49 (.574)
2024 prediction factors: 44
2023 document: 79-83 (.488)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 27 of fifty
CM #1: Mariners (1997-1999) — 2000 document of 91-71 (.562, P)
CM #2: Phillies (1993-1995) — 1996 document of 67-95 (.414)
CM #3: Giants (1989-1991) — 1992 document of 72-90 (.444)
CM #4: Marlins (2003-2005) — 2006 document of 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Brewers (2011-2013) — 2014 document of 82-80 (.506)
2024 prediction factors: 14
2023 document: 59-103 (.364)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 8 of fifty
CM #1: Braves (1986-1988) — 1989 document of 63-97 (.394)
CM #2: Pirates (1999-2001) — 2002 document of 72-89 (.447)
CM #3: Brewers (2000-2002) — 2003 document of 68-94 (.420)
CM #4: Athletics (1977-1979) — 1980 document of 83-79 (.512)
CM #5: Astros (2009-2011) — 2012 document of 55-107 (.340)
