Maybe the third time would be the allure for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Right this moment brings the ultimate installment of my third annual set of season predictions. I envisioned the Dodgers making the World Sequence in 2021 and 2022 — and I’m sticking with them in 2023.
The earlier forecasts didn’t work out so properly. I had the Chicago White Sox defeating the Dodgers within the World Sequence two years ago, and Los Angeles beating the Tampa Bay Rays last year.
The precise World Sequence outcomes, as you’ll recall, have been the Atlanta Braves triumphing over the Houston Astros in 2021 and the Astros eliminating the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022.
That brings us to 2023. I started by issuing a sequence of predictions for the six divisions:
Then I simulated October’s postseason motion. I ran every playoff sequence 1,000 occasions, primarily based on the regular-season crew scores projected by my system. (Click here for a refresher course on TS.) The crew that gained nearly all of my simulations superior to the following spherical.
The Dodgers once more emerged from this course of because the champions of the National League, whereas the Astros retained their grip on the American League.
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I simulated the World Sequence 10,000 occasions, increasing my regular course of by 10. The outcomes have been certain to be shut, given the truth that the projected crew scores for the 2 golf equipment are nearly an identical:
Los Angeles, TS 64.504
Houston, TS 64.358
The Dodgers’ skinny margin proved to be the distinction after I ran the simulations. Los Angeles gained 5,102 of the sequence, in comparison with 4,898 for Houston.
That’s basically a 51-49 cut up, solely barely higher than a coin flip. However it’s ok to put in the Dodgers as my favorites to stroll away with the World Sequence trophy on the finish of the upcoming season.
Not a foul forecast for a crew that has been overshadowed all winter by the uninhibited spending habits of its southern neighbor, the San Diego Padres. The most important query is whether or not my 2023 forecast will pan out higher than its two predecessors.
The Dodgers can solely hope that it does.
A whole rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to return